The modern avalanche regime of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex

A.M. Kerimov, Z.T. Akshayakov, M.L. Dolova

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Abstract. The paper provides a brief characterization of the avalanche regime in the study area. It evaluates the avalanche risk within the territory of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex (Elbrus ATRC). To address this problem, a schematic map consisting of 116 avalanche paths was compiled in Google Earth Pro, covering the area from the city of Tyrnyauz to the Azau Meadow. The cadastre is registered in the EGISU database system. A fragment of this schematic map is presented in the article.
Using the Elbrus ATRC avalanche path inventory and socio-economic data of the administrative district, the authors calculated the avalanche risks Rn and Rind for various sections with different risk levels. These values are provided in the figures and tables. Based on the analysis of our results, we identified the specific avalanche paths posing the greatest risk.
Aim. The study aims to assess the contemporary Elbrus resort avalanche regime, quantitatively evaluate individual and collective avalanche risks using the Baksan Valley inventory, and identify the most hazardous sections for the population, tourists, and infrastructure.
The novelty of this work consists in the comprehensive evaluation of avalanche risks utilizing a newly compiled avalanche inventory and a digital schematic map developed within the Google Earth Pro environment. We have performed hazard zoning of the study area based on avalanche danger levels and calculated individual and collective risk indicators for different sections. Spatial analysis enabled the identification of zones with unacceptable risk levels and the determination of the most hazardous avalanche paths threatening settlements, tourist facilities, and transportation infrastructure.
The methodology rests on archival data from the Elbrus Militarized Avalanche Protection Service covering a long-term observation period, a updated Baksan Valley avalanche inventory, and demographic information for the Elbrus Municipal District. Our research involved applying cartographic analysis, geospatial modeling in Google Earth Pro, zoning the territory by avalanche activity levels, and calculating individual and collective avalanche risk indicators based on avalanche frequency, spatiotemporal vulnerability, and density.
Conclusion. The study demonstrates that the current avalanche mitigation system in the Elbrus region fails to ensure the necessary level of safety for both local residents and tourists. The maximum individual and collective avalanche risks are found in Cheget, Terskol, and the Severny Cirque, exceeding acceptable safety thresholds. Further socio-economic development of the Elbrus region must incorporate these avalanche risk assessment findings, ensuring that new infrastructure is situated in areas with lower exposure to natural hazards.

Keywords: avalanche inventory, spatial vulnerability, overall avalanche risk, individual avalanche risk

For citation. Kerimov A.M., Akshayakov Z.T., Dolova M.L. The modern avalanche regime of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex. News of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of RAS. 2026. Vol. 28. No. 4. Pp. 11–20. DOI: 10.35330/1991-6639-2026-28-4-11-20

©  Kerimov A.M., Akshayakov Z.T., Dolova M.L., 2026

References

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Information about the authors

Abdullah M. Kerimov, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Leading Researcher, Department of Natural Phenomena, High-mountain Geophysical Institute;

2, Lenin avenue, Nalchik, 360001, Russia;
kerimov.a.m.@mail.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6225-8053
Zaur T. Akshayakov, Researcher, Department of Environmental Research, High-mountain Geophysical Institute;
2, Lenin avenue, Nalchik, 360001, Russia;
akzaur@yandex.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3037-7004

Madina L. Dolova, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Researcher, Department of Natural Phenomena, High-mountain Geophysical Institute;
2, Lenin avenue, Nalchik, 360001, Russia;
madinadolova@yandex.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5745-973X

Funding

The study was performed without external funding.