Modeling vineyard and wineries dynamic in the Republic of Dagestan

D.A. Maksimov, Yu.V. Morozova

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Abstract. The article examines in detail the history of viticulture in the territory of first Dagestan region, then Dagestan and now the Republic of Dagestan. Viticulture and winemaking have not been a priority for the development in this region. The literary database contains carefully selected and organized statistical materials, including data extracted from publications from the late 19th century.
Aim. The study is to consider the prospects and trends in the dynamics of vineyard areas and production of wineries in the Republic of Dagestan.
Research methods. The work uses economic and statistical techniques in the areas analysis. An econometric analysis is also carried out to study the relationship between yield and area. Based on the data collected, generalizations and systematizations are made, allowing us to draw conclusions about the significance of grape plantations for the economy and society of the Republic of Dagestan.
Results. The work carried out a comprehensive analysis for the vineyard areas and key production indicators for wineries in the Republic of Dagestan. The study includes a thorough examination of the current situation in the region’s vineyards, as well as the yields assessment. As part of our analysis, we identified and systematized the main trends in changes in vineyard areas and grape yields in the Republic of Dagestan from 1870 to the present.
Conclusion. The analysis shows that there is no direct correlation between the gross harvest and the area of plantings. The key trend is a significant increase in efficiency: in the 2020s, similar harvest volumes to those of the 1970s and 1980s from an area that is 2.5 times smaller, which indicates to transition to more intensive viticulture. The developed econometric model ARIMA(1,1,0) confirms the moderate positive dynamics in yields and is suitable for short-term forecasting, creating the basis for scientifically sound planning in the industry, considering both agrotechnical and climatic factors.

Keywords: agro-industrial complex, yield modeling, dynamics of wineries, viticulture, Republic of Dagestan

For citation. Maksimov D.A., Morozova Yu.V. Modeling vineyard and wineries dynamic in the Republic of Dagestan. News of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of RAS. 2026. Vol. 28. No. 2. Pp. 75–90. DOI: 10.35330/1991-6639-2026-28-2-75-90

©   Maksimov D.A., Morozova Yu.V., 2026

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Information about the authors

Denis A. Maksimov, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics;
36, Stremyanny lane, Moscow, 115054, Russia;
Maksimov.DA@rea.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8316-8359, SPIN-code: 6104-5875
Yulia V. Morozova, Master Student, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics;
36, Stremyanny lane, Moscow, 115054, Russia;
morozova.vladimirovna@gmail.com, SPIN-code: 9519-2755

Funding

The study was performed without external funding.