{"id":2059,"date":"2025-05-13T10:33:17","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T09:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/newskbncran.ru\/?page_id=2059"},"modified":"2026-03-27T12:07:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T12:07:59","slug":"26-4-6-en","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/index.php\/en\/26-4-6-en\/","title":{"rendered":"26.4.6 en"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Building the trend component of an additive mathematical model of planned electricity production volume to improve energy efficiency<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

T.S. Demyanenko, L.M.<\/strong> Semenenko<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Abstract. <\/em><\/strong>The nationally declared «Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to 2035» involves a comprehensive structural transformation of the energy sector and its transition to a qualitatively new level that meets the needs of the country’s economic development. Improvement of energy efficiency is one of the priority directions of the policy outlined in Russian energy strategy for this period. Nowadays steps are being taken to encourage consumers to participate in increasing energy efficiency and leveling load schedules. The need for highly accurate forecasts of both energy consumption and production is becoming increasingly important. Moreover, a growing number of enterprises are becoming interested in improving their own energy efficiency and reducing electricity consumption costs, thereby increasing their profits. This research aims to develop a highly accurate mathematical model for forecasting electricity production volume. The accuracy of the model is enhanced by incorporating only dominant factors into the model, with a preliminary determination of the type of their functional dependence on the studied parameter. Additionally, these factors are shifted back by several periods to use reliable values of all factors in the model and avoid constructing separate forecasting models for them. This approach prevents the forecast error of each factor from compounding the overall model error. The magnitude of the shift is justified by the autocorrelation function.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keywords:<\/em><\/strong> improvement of energy efficiency, forecasting model, multifactor regression, determination of functional relationship, identification of dominant factors, demand management, electric power industry, planned production volume, day-ahead market, minimum equilibrium price index<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For citation<\/strong>. Demyanenko T.S., Semenenko L.M.Building the trend component of an additive mathematical model of planned electricity production volume to improve energy efficiency. News of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of RAS.<\/em>2024. Vol. 26. No. 4. Pp. 71\u201382. DOI: 10.35330\/<\/strong>1991-6639-2024-26-4-71-82<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/summary>\n
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  1. Mokhov V.G., Demyanenko T.S. Analiz regionalnogo rynka electricheskoy energii Rossii<\/em> [Analysis of the regional electrical energy market of Russia]. Chelyabinsk: SUSU. 2019. 183 p. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Pryahin A.V., Androshina I.S. Features of assessing the investment attractiveness of shares of generating companies. Internauka<\/em> [Interscience]. 2023. Vol. 42-3 (312). Pp. 11\u201314. EDN: ZRPNNZ. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Gatiyatullina D.A. Energy marketing as an effective path to energy saving: theoretical aspects. Vestnik Kazanskogo tekhnologicheskogo universiteta<\/em> [Bulletin of Kazan Technological University]. 2012. Vol. 15. No. 43. Pp. 149\u2013158. EDN: OQPVMB. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Glazov V.I. Managing the demand for electricity as an opportunity for additional income and saving energy costs for oil and gas enterprises. Vserossijskaya nauchno-prakticheskaya konferenciya \u201cVoprosy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom\u201d<\/em> [All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference \u201cIssues of Economics and Management of the Oil and Gas Complex\u201d]. Rossi\u0443skij gosudarstvennyj universitet nefti i gaza (nacional’nyj issledovatel’skij universitet) imeni I.M. Gubkina. Moscow. 2021. Pp. 49\u201350. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Klyuev R.V., Morgoeva A.D., Gavrina O.A. et al. Forecasting planned electricity consumption for the interconnected power system using machine learning. Zapiski Gornogo instituta<\/em> [Notes of the Mining Institute]. 2023. Vol. 261. Pp. 392\u2013402. EDN: FJGZTVD. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Mokhov V.G., Demyanenko T.S. Determination of significant factors when forecasting the volume of electricity consumption in the unified energy system of the Urals based on regression analysis. Vestnik UrFU. Seriya: Ekonomika i upravlenie<\/em> [Bulletin of UrFU. Series: Economics and management.]. 2017. Vol. 16. No 4. Pp. 642\u2013662. DOI: 10.15826\/vestnik.2017.16.4.031. (In Russian)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n

    Information about the authors<\/strong><\/summary>\n

    Tatyana S. Demyanenko<\/strong>, Candidate of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematical and Computer Modeling \u2013 South Ural State University (National Research University);
    454080, Russia, Chelyabinsk, 76 V.I. Lenin prospekt;
    demianenkots@susu.ru, ORCID: https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2420-5356, SPIN-code: 7170-3021
    Lyubov M. Semenenko<\/strong>, student of the \u0415\u0422-229 group, South Ural State University (National Research University);
    454080, Russia, Chelyabinsk, 76 V.I. Lenin prospekt;
    lubashtyka28@gmail.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Building the trend component of an additive mathematical model of planned electricity production volume to improve energy efficiency T.S. Demyanenko, L.M. Semenenko Upload the full text Abstract. The nationally declared «Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to 2035» involves a comprehensive structural transformation of the energy sector and its transition to a qualitatively […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2059","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\n26.4.6 en - \u0418\u0417\u0412\u0415\u0421\u0422\u0418\u042f \u041a\u0410\u0411\u0410\u0420\u0414\u0418\u041d\u041e-\u0411\u0410\u041b\u041a\u0410\u0420\u0421\u041a\u041e\u0413\u041e \u041d\u0410\u0423\u0427\u041d\u041e\u0413\u041e \u0426\u0415\u041d\u0422\u0420\u0410 \u0420\u0410\u041d\u00bb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/index.php\/en\/26-4-6-en\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"26.4.6 en - \u0418\u0417\u0412\u0415\u0421\u0422\u0418\u042f \u041a\u0410\u0411\u0410\u0420\u0414\u0418\u041d\u041e-\u0411\u0410\u041b\u041a\u0410\u0420\u0421\u041a\u041e\u0413\u041e \u041d\u0410\u0423\u0427\u041d\u041e\u0413\u041e \u0426\u0415\u041d\u0422\u0420\u0410 \u0420\u0410\u041d\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Building the trend component of an additive mathematical model of planned electricity production volume to improve energy efficiency T.S. 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