{"id":16071,"date":"2026-09-07T21:34:02","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T20:34:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/?page_id=16071"},"modified":"2026-09-08T14:14:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:14:15","slug":"28-4-1-en","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/index.php\/en\/28-4-1-en\/","title":{"rendered":"28.4.1 En"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-title-color-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:22px;line-height:1.4\"><strong>The modern avalanche regime of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-2 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;line-height:1.4\"><strong>A.M. Kerimov, Z.T. Akshayakov, M.L. Dolova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-left is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-20193d73 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0\">\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-3 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#5b1919;font-size:12px;text-decoration:underline\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-9076828a wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"min-height:0px;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-856cf56e wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\" style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-top:0;padding-right:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-left:0\">\n<div style=\"--wp--block-button--width: 100;\" class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline has-custom-width wp-block-button__width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"http:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1.-kerimov-akshayakov.pdf\" style=\"border-color:#5b1919;border-style:solid;border-width:2px;border-radius:8px;color:#5b1919;padding-top:0.4rem;padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);padding-bottom:0.4rem;padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);font-size:12px\">PDF<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:0px;width:0px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer wp-container-content-273e683f\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div style=\"--wp--block-button--width: 100;\" class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline has-custom-width wp-block-button__width wp-block-button__width-100 is-style-outline--2\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-border-color has-text-align-center has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"http:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/01-conceptual.xml\" style=\"border-color:#5b1919;border-width:2px;border-top-left-radius:8px;border-top-right-radius:8px;border-bottom-left-radius:8px;border-bottom-right-radius:8px;color:#5b1919;padding-top:0.4rem;padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);padding-bottom:0.4rem;padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);font-size:12px\">JATS XML<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-4 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;color:#5b1919;margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);margin-right:0;margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);margin-left:0;padding-top:0;padding-right:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-left:0\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20)\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-5 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;line-height:1.4\"><em><strong><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/strong>. <\/em>The paper provides a brief characterization of the avalanche regime in the study area. It evaluates the avalanche risk within the territory of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex (Elbrus ATRC). To address this problem, a schematic map consisting of 116 avalanche paths was compiled in Google Earth Pro, covering the area from the city of Tyrnyauz to the Azau Meadow. The cadastre is registered in the EGISU database system. A fragment of this schematic map is presented in the article.<br>Using the Elbrus ATRC avalanche path inventory and socio-economic data of the administrative district, the authors calculated the avalanche risks Rn and Rind for various sections with different risk levels. These values are provided in the figures and tables. Based on the analysis of our results, we identified the specific avalanche paths posing the greatest risk.<br><strong>Aim<\/strong>. The study aims to assess the contemporary Elbrus resort avalanche regime, quantitatively evaluate individual and collective avalanche risks using the Baksan Valley inventory, and identify the most hazardous sections for the population, tourists, and infrastructure.<br>The <strong>novelty <\/strong>of this work consists in the comprehensive evaluation of avalanche risks utilizing a newly compiled avalanche inventory and a digital schematic map developed within the Google Earth Pro environment. We have performed hazard zoning of the study area based on avalanche danger levels and calculated individual and collective risk indicators for different sections. Spatial analysis enabled the identification of zones with unacceptable risk levels and the determination of the most hazardous avalanche paths threatening settlements, tourist facilities, and transportation infrastructure.<br>The <strong>methodology<\/strong> rests on archival data from the Elbrus Militarized Avalanche Protection Service covering a long-term observation period, a updated Baksan Valley avalanche inventory, and demographic information for the Elbrus Municipal District. Our research involved applying cartographic analysis, geospatial modeling in Google Earth Pro, zoning the territory by avalanche activity levels, and calculating individual and collective avalanche risk indicators based on avalanche frequency, spatiotemporal vulnerability, and density.<br><strong>Conclusion<\/strong>. The study demonstrates that the current avalanche mitigation system in the Elbrus region fails to ensure the necessary level of safety for both local residents and tourists. The maximum individual and collective avalanche risks are found in Cheget, Terskol, and the Severny Cirque, exceeding acceptable safety thresholds. Further socio-economic development of the Elbrus region must incorporate these avalanche risk assessment findings, ensuring that new infrastructure is situated in areas with lower exposure to natural hazards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-6 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.4\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-7 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.4\"><strong><em><strong>Keywords<\/strong><\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em> avalanche inventory, spatial vulnerability, overall avalanche risk, individual avalanche risk<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-8 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.4\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-9 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px;line-height:1.4\"><strong><strong>For citation<\/strong>.<\/strong> Kerimov A.M., Akshayakov Z.T., Dolova M.L. The modern avalanche regime of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex. News of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of RAS. 2026. Vol. 28. No. 4. Pp. 11\u201320. DOI: 10.35330\/1991-6639-2026-28-4-11-20<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-10 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px;line-height:1.4\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-11 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px;line-height:1.4\">\u00a9&nbsp;&nbsp;Kerimov A.M., Akshayakov Z.T., Dolova M.L., 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-8e2b6fff wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"28\" src=\"https:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7229\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-12 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);margin-bottom:0;font-size:12px\">Content is available under license&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-13 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px;line-height:1.4\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-14 is-layout-flow wp-container-core-details-is-layout-f488f964 wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:1.5\"><summary><strong>R<\/strong>eferences<\/summary>\n<ol style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Blagoveshchensky V.P. Avalanche risk assessment.MGI. 1987. Issue 82. Pp. 165\u2013168. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Kerimov A.M. Avalanche risk assessment for the population of the mountainous regions of the Central Caucasus (using the Elbrus region and TransKAM as an example). Hazardous natural and man-made processes in mountainous regions: models, systems, technologies \/ Ed. A.V. Nikolaev, V.B. Zaalishvili. Vladikavkaz: GPI VSC RAS, 2019. Pp. 278\u2013282. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Kerimov A.M., Akshayakov Z.T., Kurasheva O.A. Registration of the database \u201cCadastre of avalanche collections of the Baksan Gorge from the city of Tyrnyauz to the Azau clearing and electronic map-scheme of avalanche collections\u201d. Registration No. 2023621428 dated 05\/10\/2023. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Andreev Yu.B., Bozhinsky A.N. Problems of assessment and mapping of natural risk (on the example of avalanches and mudflows). Bulletin of Moscow University. 1996. No. 3. Series 5. Geography. P\u0440. 55\u201360. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Chitadze V.S. Avalanche danger of the Baksan Gorge. Proceedings of the HMGI. 1965. No. 4. P\u0440. 68\u2013111. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Bekkiev M.Yu., Dokukin M.D., Kalov R.Kh. et al. About the problem of protection of objects located in an avalancheprone zone (on the example of the Elbrus region and Dombay). Bulletin of the Vladikavkaz Scientific Center. 2023. Vol. 23. No. 4. P\u0440. 68\u201375. DOI: 10.46698\/VNC.2023.39.70.001. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 20, 2019 No. 1743 \u00ab\u041en amendments to paragraph 1 of the Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 21, 2007 No. 304 \u201cOn the classification of natural and man-made emergencies\u201d. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of October 14, 2010 No. 833 \u201cOn the creation of special economic zones and a tourism cluster in the North Caucasus Federal District\u201d. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Seliverstov Yu.G., Shnyparkov A.L., Glazovskaya T.G. Avalanche risk assessment for the population of mountainous regions of Russia. Ice and Snow. 2010. No. 4(112). P\u0440. 41\u201344. EDN: PIVOQZ. (In Russian)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">Reports of the Elbrus VSBG (Federal State Budgetary Institution \u201cNorth Caucasus Military Service for Active Influence on Meteorological and Other Geophysical Processes\u201d). 1980\u20132025. (In Russian)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family has-extra-small-font-size wp-elements-15 is-layout-flow wp-container-core-details-is-layout-9ff6af70 wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:1.5\"><summary><strong>Information about the authors<\/strong><\/summary>\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-1c18c512 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"min-height:0px;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40)\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\"><strong>Abdullah M. Kerimov<\/strong>, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Leading Researcher, Department of Natural Phenomena, High-mountain Geophysical Institute;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\">2, Lenin avenue, Nalchik, 360001, Russia;<br>kerimov.a.m.@mail.ru, ORCID: https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6225-8053<br><strong>Zaur T. Akshayakov<\/strong>, Researcher, Department of Environmental Research, High-mountain Geophysical Institute;<br>2, Lenin avenue, Nalchik, 360001, Russia;<br>akzaur@yandex.ru, ORCID: https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3037-7004<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\"><strong>Madina L. Dolova<\/strong>, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Researcher, Department of Natural Phenomena, High-mountain Geophysical Institute;<br>2, Lenin avenue, Nalchik, 360001, Russia;<br>madinadolova@yandex.ru, ORCID: https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-5745-973X<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details has-foreground-color has-text-color has-link-color has-lora-font-family wp-elements-16 is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><summary><strong>Funding<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20)\">The study was performed without external funding.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The modern avalanche regime of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex A.M. Kerimov, Z.T. Akshayakov, M.L. Dolova Abstract. The paper provides a brief characterization of the avalanche regime in the study area. It evaluates the avalanche risk within the territory of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex (Elbrus ATRC). To address this problem, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"wp-custom-template-home","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-16071","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>28.4.1 En - \u0418\u0417\u0412\u0415\u0421\u0422\u0418\u042f \u041a\u0410\u0411\u0410\u0420\u0414\u0418\u041d\u041e-\u0411\u0410\u041b\u041a\u0410\u0420\u0421\u041a\u041e\u0413\u041e \u041d\u0410\u0423\u0427\u041d\u041e\u0413\u041e \u0426\u0415\u041d\u0422\u0420\u0410 \u0420\u0410\u041d\u00bb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/izvestiyakbncran.ru\/index.php\/en\/28-4-1-en\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"28.4.1 En - \u0418\u0417\u0412\u0415\u0421\u0422\u0418\u042f \u041a\u0410\u0411\u0410\u0420\u0414\u0418\u041d\u041e-\u0411\u0410\u041b\u041a\u0410\u0420\u0421\u041a\u041e\u0413\u041e \u041d\u0410\u0423\u0427\u041d\u041e\u0413\u041e \u0426\u0415\u041d\u0422\u0420\u0410 \u0420\u0410\u041d\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The modern avalanche regime of the Elbrus All-Season Tourist and Recreational Complex A.M. 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