Research on development and forecast of domestic and global markets for artificial intelligence systems and intelligent robotic complexes

O.Z. Zagazezheva, A.A. Makhoshev, K.F. Krai, S.Kh. Shalova, M.I. Khadzhieva

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Abstract: The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the current state and long-term prospects for the development of the global and domestic markets for artificial intelligence systems and intelligent robotic complexes. A comparative analysis of the technological development strategies of leading countries has been conducted, and key trends, growth drivers, and systemic constraints have been identified. Based on statistical data and government programs, scenario forecasts for industry development over 5-, 10-, and 15–20-year horizons are presented. Special attention is paid to the positioning of Russian companies on the global stage and their competitive advantages in light of import substitution and geopolitical changes.
Aim. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the long-term prospects for the development of domestic and global markets for artificial intelligence systems and intelligent robotic complexes, as well as the identification of strategic competitive advantages within an emerging multipolar technological ecosystem.
Research methods. The study employs comparative analysis, statistical data analysis, expert assessments, content analysis of government programs and technological development strategies, as well as scenario forecasting. Data from international organizations (IFR, Stanford HAI), analytical agencies (McKinsey, Gartner, BCG), and official statistical reports have been used.
Results. Technological development strategies of leading countries were systematized, revealing a significant gap in Russia’s level of robotization (5–7 robots per 10,000 employees compared to 150–1000 among global leaders). Three scenarios for the development of the Russian AI market (optimistic, baseline, pessimistic) were formulated, projecting market volume between USD 4.1 and 7.1 billion by 2027. The study highlights the successful specialization of Russian companies in niche segments (cybersecurity, infrastructure inspection, service robotics) and their growing presence in Asian, Middle Eastern, and African markets.
Conclusions. The dominance of Western countries in the technological sphere is gradually weakening, giving rise to an era of technological polycentrism. Russia, by focusing on technological sovereignty, is demonstrating significant progress in specialized segments of AI and robotics. Key success factors include overcoming systemic constraints (low private investment, weak business innovation activity), developing educational infrastructure, and deepening international cooperation with friendly countries. The long-term competitiveness of Russian solutions will depend on their reliability, adaptability, and independence from Western technological chains.

Keywords: intelligent robotic complexes, artificial intelligence, market forecasting, technological development, import substitution, industrial robotics, innovation ecosystem, technological sovereignty, global competition, digital transformation, government programs, scenario planning, Russian IT market, international technological cooperation, cybersecurity

For citation. Zagazezheva O.Z., Makhoshev A.A., Krai K.F., Shalova S.Kh., Khadzhieva M.I. Research on development and forecast of domestic and global markets for artificial intelligence systems and intelligent robotic complexes. News of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of RAS. 2025. Vol. 27. No. 6. Pp. 314–328. DOI: 10.35330/1991-6639-2025-27-6-314-328

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Information about the authors

Oksana Z. Zagazezheva, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head of the Engineering Center of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
2, Balkarov street, Nalchik, 360010, Russia;
oksmil.82@mail.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0903-4234, SPIN-code: 3223-6780
Artur A. Makoshev, Junior Researcher, Engineering Center of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
2, Balkarov street, Nalchik, 360010, Russia;
arturmakhosh@yandex.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9199-7632, SPIN-code: 1796-1543
Karina F. Krai, Head of the laboratory “Models and Methods for the Developing of Innovative Developments” of the Engineering Center of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
2, Balkarov street, Nalchik, 360010, Russia;
kraykarina@mail.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6927-7361, SPIN-code: 5967-0267
Sataney Kh. Shalova, Researcher, Engineering Center of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
2, Balkarov street, Nalchik, 360010, Russia;
satanei@mail.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2345-1309, SPIN-code: 2183-8224
Mariam I. Khadzhieva, Junior Researcher, Engineering Center of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
2, Balkarov street, Nalchik, 360010, Russia;
mariam9248@mail.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1607-1324, SPIN-code: 4706-5704