Results of the analysis and forecast of population reproduction at the macro and meso levels

F.Zh. Berova

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Abstract: In this article, on the basis of the research, trends in demographic processes at the macro- and meso-levels are determined, taking into account the influence of various factors. Based on the results of the analysis and forecast of the age structure of the population of the KBR, the main periods of the reproductive process of the population of the region were determined, the presence of demographic waves that are fading was revealed. It is substantiated that the expected changes in the age structure in the coming years will lead to depopulation. Based on the analysis of various situational models, ways to prevent population depopulation in the republic were identified, optimal parameters for ensuring a stationary and extended population reproduction regime were determined.

Keywords: forecast, situational models, population reproduction, age structure of the population, birth and death rates, demographic transition, internal and external factors

For citation. Berova F.Zh. Results of the analysis and forecast of population reproduction at the macro and meso levels. News of the Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of RAS. 2023. No. 1(111). Pp. 38–47. DOI: 10.35330/1991-6639-2023-1-111-38-47

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Information about the author

Berova Farizat Zhamalovna, Doctor of Economics, Leading Researcher in Department of “Mathematical Methods of Research of Complex Systems and Processes”, Institute of Computer Science and Problems of Regional Management – branch of Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
360000, Russia, Nalchik, 37-a I. Armand street;
berova@list.ru