1991-6639 2949-1940 Известия Кабардино-Балкарского научного центра РАН NEWS OF THE KABARDINO-BALKARIAN SCIENTIFIC CENTER OF RAS КБНЦ РАН 10.35330/1991-6639-2026-28-2-119-132 UVOLOI https://izvestiyakbncran.ru/index.php/28-2-9/ РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ И ОТРАСЛЕВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMICS Влияние сбоев в цепочках поставок, вызванных международными санкциями, на развитие суверенных экономик: метод «Difference-in-Differences» The impact of supply chain disruptions caused by international sanctions on the development of sovereign economies: Difference-in-Difference methods of analysis Фикире Абебау Хайлу Фикире Абебау Хайлу Fikire Abebaw H. abebawhailu26@gmail.com 0000-0002-6356-6701 Корчагина Елена Викторовна Корчагина Елена Викторовна Korchagina Elena V. elena.korchagina@mail.ru 0000-0003-3070-2508 Институт промышленного менеджмента, экономики и торговли, Санкт-Петербургский политехнический университет Петра Великого (Санкт-Петербург, Россия) Institute of Industrial Management, Economics and Trade, Peter the Great Saint Petersburg Polytechnic University (Saint Petersburg, Russia) 30 04 2026 2026 28 2 119 132 08 08 2025 25 03 2026 16 01 2026 Фикире А. Х., Корчагина Е. В. 2026 Фикире А. Х., Корчагина Е. В. Fikire A.H., Korchagina E.V. CC BY 4.0 https://izvestiyakbncran.ru/index.php/28-2-9/

Международные санкции существенно нарушают цепочки поставок продовольствия, увеличивая производственные и транспортные издержки, сокращая торговые потоки и влияя на макроэкономические показатели. Данное исследование актуально для изучения влияния сбоев в цепочках поставок, вызванных международными санкциями, на развитие суверенных экономик и организацию поставок продовольствия. Цель исследования – изучение влияния сбоев в цепочках поставок, вызванных международными санкциями, на развитие суверенных экономик. Материалы и методы. Информация была собрана из базы данных Всемирного банка и объединена в панельный набор данных. В исследовании использовались как описательная, так и инференциальная статистика для анализа панельного набора данных. Результаты исследования показывают, что международные санкции существенно влияют на торговые связи России и нефтяную ренту, прямые иностранные инвестиции и реальный эффективный валютный курс по сравнению с Китаем и Бразилией. Заключение. Данное исследование представляет эмпирические данные о направлениях влияния сбоев в цепочках поставок, вызванных международными санкциями, на развитие суверенной экономики. Результаты дают представление заинтересованным сторонам о стратегиях смягчения сбоев цепочек поставок и повышения экономической устойчивости в условиях санкций.

International sanction highly disrupts the food supply chains by increasing production and transportation costs, reducing trade flows, and affecting macroeconomic performance. Therefore, this study is relevant in addressing the impacts of supply chain disruption caused by international sanctions on the development of sovereign economies to enhance the efficiency of food supply. Aim. The study is to investigate the impact of supply chain disruption caused by international sanctions on the development of sovereign economies. Materials and methods. The data were collected from the World Bank database and compiled in the panel dataset. For this purpose, the study employed both descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze the panel dataset. Result. The findings reveal that international sanctions significantly affect Russia's trade balance, oil rents, foreign direct investment and real effective exchange rate inflows relative to China and Brazil. Conclusion. This study provides empirical evidence on the supply chain channels through which international sanctions impact sovereign economic development. The results offer insights for policymakers and stakeholders in designing strategies to mitigate supply chain disruptions and enhance economic resilience under sanctions.

 Ключевые слова сбои в цепочке поставок международные санкции рост ВВП нефтяная рента суверенная экономика торговый баланс метод «Разность разностей» Keywords Supply chain disruption International sanction GDP growth Oil rents Sovereign economy trade balance difference in difference Исследование проведено без спонсорской поддержки. The study was performed without external funding. Tignino M., Bréthaut C. The role of international case law in implementing the obligation not to cause significant harm. Int. Environ. Agreem. Polit. Law Econ. 2020. Vol. 20. No. 4. Pp. 631–648. DOI: 10.1007/s10784-020-09503-6 Egbomuche-Okeke L. A critical appraisal of the doctrine of obligation in international law. J. Law Confl. Resolut. 2010. Vol. 2. № 6. Pp. 98–102. Davis L., Engerman S. Sanctions: Neither war nor peace. J. Econ. Perspect. 2003. Vol. 17. No. 2. Pp. 187–197. DOI: 10.1257/089533003765888502 Pauwelyn J., Pelc K. Who guards the guardians of the system? The role of the secretariat in who dispute settlement. Am. J. Int. Law. 2022. Vol. 116. No. 3. Pp. 534–566. DOI: 10.1017/ajil.2022.20 Alfaro-Ureña A., Manelici I., Vasquez J.P. The effects of joining multinational supply chains: new evidence from firm-to-firm linkages. Q. J. Econ. 2022. Vol. 137. No. 3. Pp. 1495–1552. DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjac006 Zhang F., Graham D.J. Air transport and economic growth: a review of the impact mechanism and causal relationships. Transp. Rev. 2020. Vol. 40. No. 4. Pp. 506–528. DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2020.1738587 Cekerevac Z., Bogavac M. Impact of Covid-19 and Ukraine-Russia War on the international trade and logistics. MEST J. 2023. Vol. 11. No. 1. Pp. 19–30. DOI: 10.12709/mest.11.11.01.03 Cengiz Ö. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşinin türki̇ye’ den geçen ort loji̇sti̇k kori̇dor etki̇leri̇. Kafkas üniversitesi iktisadi ve idari bilim. Fakültesi Derg. 2023. Vol. 14. No. 27. Pp. 485–505. DOI: 10.36543/kauiibfd.2023.019 Chang Y., Iakovou E., Shi W. Blockchain in global supply chains and cross border trade: a critical synthesis of the state-of-the-art, challenges and opportunities Int. J. Prod. Res. 2020. Vol. 58. No. 7. Pp. 2082–2099. DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2019.1651946 Kokabisaghi F. Assessment of the effects of economic sanctions on Iranians’ right to health by using human rights impact assessment tool: A systematic review. Int. J. Health Policy Manag. 2018. Vol. 7. No. 5. Pp. 374–393. DOI: 10.15171/ijhpm.2017.147 Saiymova M. et al. Russia’s petroleum industry in the period of sanctions and Covid-19 pandemic: A review and analysis. Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy. 2021. Vol. 11. No. 5. Pp. 483–489. DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.11385 Safiullin M.R., Elshin L.A. Sanctions pressure on the Russian economy: ways to overcome the costs and benefits of confrontation within the framework of import substitution. Finance Theory Pract. 2023. Vol. 27. No. 1. Pp. 150–161. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-1-150-161 Dudin M.N., Shkodinsky S.V., Ivanov M.O. Current problems of ensuring the financial sovereignty of Russia in the context of international sanctions. Finance Theory Pract. 2023. Vol. 27. No. 1. Pp. 185–194. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-1-185-194 Gertler P.J., Martinez S., Premand P., Rawlings L.B. Impact evaluation in practice book. second edition. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank., 2016. World Bank. World Development Indicators DataBank. 2023. Fedyunina A.A., Simachev Yu., Drapkin I. Intensive and extensive margins of export: determinants of economic growth in russian regions under sanctions. Econ. Reg. 2023. Vol. 19. No. 3. Pp. 884–897. DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-20 Beloborodova K., Epova N. Russia’s position in the system of international trade relations in the context of sanctions imposed against Russia. Baikal Res. J. 2023. Vol. 14. No. 1. Pp. 222–234. Kopytin I.A., Pilnik N.P., Stankevich I.P. Modelling five variables bvar for economic policies and growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005–2020. 2021. Vol. 11. No. 5. Pp. 510–518. Bělín M., Hanousek J. Which sanctions matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian sanctions of 2014. J. Comp. Econ. 2021. Vol. 49. No. 1. Pp. 244–257. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2020.07.001 Serikkyzy A. et al. Foreign direct investment and economic development: An international perspective. 2024. Pp. 97–111. DOI: 10.2478/eoik-2024-0012 Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) – Measuring Trade-Weighted Competitiveness – MetricGate Calculator. MetricGate. URL: https://metricgate.com/docs/ real-effective-exchange-rate/ (accessed: 20/01/2026). Mohammadi-Nasrabadi F., Ghodsi D., Haghighian-Roudsari A. et al. Economic sanctions affecting household food and nutrition security and policies to cope with them: A systematic review. Int. J. Health Policy Manag. 2023. Vol. 12. No. 1. P. 7362. DOI: 10.34172/ijhpm.2023.7362 Crozet M., Hinz J. Friendly fire: The trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions. Econ. Policy. 2021. Vol. 35. No. 101. Pp. 97–146. DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiaa006 Aimer N.M. Estimating the impact of oil rents on the economic growth of the OPEC countries. European Journal of Management and Marketing Studies. 2018. Pp. 110–122. Tignino M., Bréthaut C. The role of international case law in implementing the obligation not to cause significant harm. Int. Environ. Agreem. Polit. Law Econ. 2020. Vol. 20. No. 4. Pp. 631–648. DOI: 10.1007/s10784-020-09503-6 Egbomuche-Okeke L. A critical appraisal of the doctrine of obligation in international law. J. Law Confl. Resolut. 2010. Vol. 2. № 6. Pp. 98–102. Davis L., Engerman S. Sanctions: Neither war nor peace. J. Econ. Perspect. 2003. Vol. 17. No. 2. Pp. 187–197. DOI: 10.1257/089533003765888502 Pauwelyn J., Pelc K. Who guards the guardians of the system? The role of the secretariat in who dispute settlement. Am. J. Int. Law. 2022. Vol. 116. No. 3. Pp. 534–566. DOI: 10.1017/ajil.2022.20 Alfaro-Ureña A., Manelici I., Vasquez J.P. The effects of joining multinational supply chains: new evidence from firm-to-firm linkages. Q. J. Econ. 2022. Vol. 137. No. 3. Pp. 1495–1552. DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjac006 Zhang F., Graham D.J. Air transport and economic growth: a review of the impact mechanism and causal relationships. Transp. Rev. 2020. Vol. 40. No. 4. Pp. 506–528. DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2020.1738587 Cekerevac Z., Bogavac M. Impact of Covid-19 and Ukraine-Russia War on the international trade and logistics. MEST J. 2023. Vol. 11. No. 1. Pp. 19–30. DOI: 10.12709/mest.11.11.01.03 Cengiz Ö. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşinin türki̇ye’ den geçen ort loji̇sti̇k kori̇dor etki̇leri̇. Kafkas üniversitesi iktisadi ve idari bilim. Fakültesi Derg. 2023. Vol. 14. No. 27. Pp. 485–505. DOI: 10.36543/kauiibfd.2023.019 Chang Y., Iakovou E., Shi W. Blockchain in global supply chains and cross border trade: a critical synthesis of the state-of-the-art, challenges and opportunities Int. J. Prod. Res. 2020. Vol. 58. No. 7. Pp. 2082–2099. DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2019.1651946 Kokabisaghi F. Assessment of the effects of economic sanctions on Iranians’ right to health by using human rights impact assessment tool: A systematic review. Int. J. Health Policy Manag. 2018. Vol. 7. No. 5. Pp. 374–393. DOI: 10.15171/ijhpm.2017.147 Saiymova M. et al. Russia’s petroleum industry in the period of sanctions and Covid-19 pandemic: A review and analysis. Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy. 2021. Vol. 11. No. 5. Pp. 483–489. DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.11385 Safiullin M.R., Elshin L.A. Sanctions pressure on the Russian economy: ways to overcome the costs and benefits of confrontation within the framework of import substitution. Finance Theory Pract. 2023. Vol. 27. No. 1. Pp. 150–161. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-1-150-161 Dudin M.N., Shkodinsky S.V., Ivanov M.O. Current problems of ensuring the financial sovereignty of Russia in the context of international sanctions. Finance Theory Pract. 2023. Vol. 27. No. 1. Pp. 185–194. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-1-185-194 Gertler P.J., Martinez S., Premand P., Rawlings L.B. Impact evaluation in practice book. second edition. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank., 2016. World Bank. World Development Indicators DataBank. 2023. Fedyunina A.A., Simachev Yu., Drapkin I. Intensive and extensive margins of export: determinants of economic growth in russian regions under sanctions. Econ. Reg. 2023. Vol. 19. No. 3. Pp. 884–897. DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-20 Beloborodova K., Epova N. Russia’s position in the system of international trade relations in the context of sanctions imposed against Russia. Baikal Res. J. 2023. Vol. 14. No. 1. Pp. 222–234. Kopytin I.A., Pilnik N.P., Stankevich I.P. Modelling five variables bvar for economic policies and growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005–2020. 2021. Vol. 11. No. 5. Pp. 510–518. Bělín M., Hanousek J. Which sanctions matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian sanctions of 2014. J. Comp. Econ. 2021. Vol. 49. No. 1. Pp. 244–257. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2020.07.001 Serikkyzy A. et al. Foreign direct investment and economic development: An international perspective. 2024. Pp. 97–111. DOI: 10.2478/eoik-2024-0012 Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) – Measuring Trade-Weighted Competitiveness – MetricGate Calculator. MetricGate. URL: https://metricgate.com/docs/ real-effective-exchange-rate/ (accessed: 20/01/2026). Mohammadi-Nasrabadi F., Ghodsi D., Haghighian-Roudsari A. et al. Economic sanctions affecting household food and nutrition security and policies to cope with them: A systematic review. Int. J. Health Policy Manag. 2023. Vol. 12. No. 1. P. 7362. DOI: 10.34172/ijhpm.2023.7362 Crozet M., Hinz J. Friendly fire: The trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions. Econ. Policy. 2021. Vol. 35. No. 101. Pp. 97–146. DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiaa006 Aimer N.M. Estimating the impact of oil rents on the economic growth of the OPEC countries. European Journal of Management and Marketing Studies. 2018. Pp. 110–122.